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OK0NAG > SOLAR 13.10.11 14:11l 99 Lines 3522 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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_____________________________________________________________________
Solar-activity forecast for the period Oct 14 - 20, 2011
Activity level: low to moderate
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 120-150 f.u.
Flares: weak (numerous), middle (0-4/period)
Relative sunspot number: in the range 110-160
Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
(RWC Prague)
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Oct 14 to Oct 20, 2011
quiet: Oct 14, 18, 19 and 20
quiet to unsettled: Oct 15 and 17
unsettled: Oct 16
active: 0
minor storm: 0
major storm: 0
severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
geomagnetic field was quiet on Oct 6, 7 and from 10 to 12,
unsettled on Oct 8 and 9.
RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept,
Czech Republic
e-mail: geom(at)ig.cas.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of one solar rotation
Geomagnetic field during the following solar rotation should be:
quiet: Oct 15 - 18, 20 - 21, 30, Nov 2, 6 - 7
mostly quiet: Oct 19, 26, Nov 8
quiet to unsettled: Oct 14, 25, 28 - 29
quiet to active: Oct 23 - 24, 27, Nov 1, 5
quiet to minor storm: Oct 22, 31, Nov 3 - 4
quiet to major storm: -
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Survey: quiet: Oct 7 - 11
mostly quiet: Oct 12
quiet to unsettled: Oct 6
quiet to active: -
quiet to minor storm: -
quiet to major storm: -
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Notices:
High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused
changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected about
Oct 20, 27 - 28, 31 and Nov 5.
Standard error of our forecasting method should be one day since
fourth day, but usually slightly better for day one to three.
Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible
activity enhancements depending on previous development
on the Sun.
F. K. Janda (OK1HH), Czech Propagation Interested Group
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
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