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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.10.11 16:37l 120 Lines 4740 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Oct 01 1433 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU274
UGEOA 30512 11001 1410/ 9930/
12012 21012 30012
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 01 Oct 2011 until 03 Oct
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Oct 2011 10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Oct 2011 10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Oct 2011 10CM FLUX: 136 / AP: 027
COMMENT: Solar activity is moderate. Active region Catania#85
(NOAA1305) has produced two M flares over the last 24 hours, both
associated with an Earth-directed CME. Multiple C flares and an
occasional M flare can still be expected from active regions NOAA1302
and 1305. The associated CMEs have a high chance to be geoeffective. The
solar wind speed has increased to 570km/s over the last few hours. This
will maintain the geomagnetic activity at unsettled to active levels
over the next 24 hours. Then, on Oct.3, the CME associated with the
Sept.30 M flare should arrive at Earth, triggering a minor to major
geomagnetic storm. The magnitude of the disturbance is still difficult
to establish with the currently available data. A second CME from the
Oct.1 M flare should follow soon (<12 hours) after the first one,
possibly causing a second peak in geomagnetic activity, on the wake of
the first disturbance.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 079, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 11001 1410/ 30///
10131 21381 3007/ 4//// 80006 90990
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
30 1855 1906 1915 N08E06 M1.0 1F 260 III/2,II/1
85 1305 halo CME
END
UGEOR 30512 11001 1410/ 01/06 01108
10082 2//// 3//// 4652/ 50630 60038 43413 17311
10085 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50180 60023 40212 27500
10086 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50060 60008 11613 01000
10087 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 14114 01000
10088 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50020 60004 16017 00000
10089 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 45023 00000
10090 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 21021 00000
10091 2//// 3//// 471// 50020 60002 26624 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 30063 08732 84001 46717 2/801 85065 41814 57623 89013
11212 21409 90004 13114 2/801 91003 15915 21303
USSPS 21305 30166 09842 02012 10512 21313 03002 12614 2/801 04001
15513 01204 05003 27427 0/101 98058 42614 54518 97003 47316 0/101
USSPS 31405 01068 16242 82063 43413 54638 85018 40212 21323 86006
11613 21308 87001 14114 01204 88002 16017 22304 89001 45023 0/101
90001 21021 0/102 91002 26624 1/902
UMAGF 30503 11001 1004/ 30062 1/024 21111 33353
UMAGF 31523 10931 ///// 3000/ 1/007 23101 31133
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
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