|
OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.10.11 00:05l 265 Lines 8857 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : U9LOK0NAG00P
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0PTU<OK0NAG
Sent: 110930/2204z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 30 Sep 2011 22:03:40 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1317418971-03b348676dd6d040001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 30 Sep 2011 22:03:43.0968 (UTC) FILETIME=[D1F07E00:01CC7FBC]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.218
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.76035Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1317418971
----boundary_858054_ba605d81-e3c2-49d2-b07b-3428b545844a
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1305 (N12E01)
produced an M1/1f at 30/1906Z. A Type II Radio Sweep (estimated
speed 690 km/s) was associated with this event along with a 260 sfu
tenflare. Region 1305 has shown slight aerial and penumbral growth
and maintains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1302
(N13W29) produced a C1/Sf at 30/0252Z and has a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. Region 1307 (N14E48) has grown slightly and
produced a C3 at 30/1847Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with M-class activity likely through the period (01-03 October),
mainly from Regions 1302 and 1305. There is a slight chance for
X-class activity from these regions as well.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active periods on days one and two (01-02 October). The increase in
activity is expected due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) on day one and possible
effects on day two from a weak CME associated with the long duration
C2 event observed on 29 September. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on day three (03 October).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 138
Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 30 Sep 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 016/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 008/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_858054_ba605d81-e3c2-49d2-b07b-3428b545844a
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_858054_ba605d81-e3c2-49d2-b07b-3428b545844a--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |