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OK0NAG > SOLAR 29.09.11 14:36l 117 Lines 4548 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Sep 29 1232 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU272
UGEOA 30512 10929 1210/ 9930/
12292 21292 30292
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 29 Sep 2011 until 01 Oct
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Oct 2011 10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate with an M flare again from the
main active region (Catania#82, NOAA#1302). The latter is stable in size
and keeps a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration in the leading
naked-eye spot. Therefore, in spite of the low flaring rate of the last
few hours, there is still a chance for an occasional M flare with a low
probability for an isolated X flare. A solar wind shock reached the
Earth magnetosphere around 00:00UT, Sept.29. This glancing CME raised
the solar wind speed again to 580km/s. It caused active to minor
geomagnetic storm conditions early today. The geomagnetic activity is
now expected to decline and become quiet to unsettled for the rest of
the 3-day forecast period, as this CME was the last one associated with
the burst of activity of Sept.24 and 25.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 081, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 10929 1210/ 28///
1//// 21332 3018/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
28 1324 1328 1330 N13E03 M1.2 1N 110 82
1302
END
UGEOR 30512 10929 1210/ 29/07 29107
10080 2//// 3//// 4512/ 50020 60004 45520 00000
10082 2//// 3//// 4552/ 50870 60050 40813 28521
10084 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50020 60003 43512 01000
10085 2//// 3//// 4522/ 50160 60021 12512 04100
10086 2//// 3//// 472// 50020 60001 14113 00000
10087 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60002 16714 01000
10088 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60003 17817 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 27081 08122 84002 42718 2/801 85085 11913 57626 87001
41012 11302 89008 15212 2/801 90002 17013 1/801
USSPS 81202 28012 12112 75010 43721 11318 79001 42113 0/103 76113
11013 57646 80009 14112 21803 81006 15813 2/801
USSPS 31405 29073 15442 80002 45520 14504 82087 40813 54550 84002
43512 21303 85016 12512 24521 86002 14113 2/901 87001 16714 01202
88001 17817 0/103
UMAGF 30503 10929 1004/ 28068 1/034 23243 32154
UMAGF 31523 10929 ///// 2800/ 1/018 24432 34332
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
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