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OK0NAG > SOLAR 26.09.11 15:43l 148 Lines 5776 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Sep 26 1339 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU269
UGEOA 30512 10926 1319/ 9930/
12262 22262 31262
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 26 Sep 2011 until 28 Sep
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 169 / AP: 023
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 011
COMMENT: The main active region on the solar disk(Cat#82; NOAA1302) has
slightly declined over the last 24 hours but remains capable of spawning
M and X flares. It produced an M4.0 flare on 5:03UT ealier today.
Although no proper coronagraph data are available yet, no CME seems to
be associated with this event. As this active region is now approaching
central meridian, any CME event would be Earth-directed. The X-ray
background decreased slightly, while the >10MeV proton flux rose
slightly above the 10sfu event threshold. On 12:00UT, a shock was
recorded in the solar wind by the ACE spacecraft. The wind speed jumped
to 550km/s and the IMF rose to 25nT. As Bz is currently positive, no
major disturbance is currently affecting the Earth magnetosphere but we
can expect active to minor storm conditions developing over the coming
hours. Other probably glancing shocks, all associated with the X and M
flares of Sept.24 and 25, can be expected over the next 24 hours. Over
the next 36hours, they will keep the geomagnetic activity at unsettled
to active levels, with possible additional minor storm periods.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 077, BASED ON 13 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 10926 1319/ 25///
1//// 21697 3005/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
24 1636 1659 1715 M1.7 IV/1
1295
24 2123 2127 2132 S29W67 M1.2 SF
1303
25 0431 0450 0505 N11E47 M7.4 2N 150 IV/2
1302
25 0846 0849 0852 N15E45 M3.1 1N
1302
25 0925 0935 0953 M1.5 250
1303
25 1526 1533 1538 N16E43 M3.7 2B 180 III/2
1302
25 1651 1658 1709 S28W75 M2.2 SF
1302
END
UGEOR 30512 10926 1319/ 26/07 26106
10080 2//// 3//// 4622/ 50080 60022 41620 03100
10082 2//// 3//// 4643/ 50880 60042 13113 29532
10083 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 37929 01000
10084 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50060 60010 10312 02000
10085 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50050 60003 16412 02000
10086 2//// 3//// 472// 50010 60001 18213 01000
99999
USSPS 32404 25101 09222 84009 40518 21515 85094 14413 57516 87002
11316 01204 88006 37029 21306 89005 17912 2/801
USSPS 21305 25179 08632 01001 11113 01205 98085 14114 57514 02012
17412 1/801 00006 37330 11303 97003 41019 21313
USSPS 81202 26008 12622 75004 40918 21330 76104 13713 47633 78006
37328 2/801 79005 10714 24411 80005 16813 2/801
USSPS 31405 26075 14042 80008 41620 24622 82088 13113 47642 83001
37929 0/102 84006 10312 24410 85005 16412 21303 86001 18213 2/901
UMAGF 30503 10926 1004/ 25068 1/008 22211 31111
UMAGF 31523 10926 ///// 2500/ 1/005 21012 32222
INDAA 10919
1/002 00200 80050 05005 00800 2/005
2/010 02501 60160 16005 00800 9/013
3/002 00200 80120 33012 00501 6/011
4/005 00200 50050 08012 01601 2/008
5/005 00500 20020 02005 00201 2/004
6/010 00200 50160 12005 01201 2/009
7/005 01000 50160 12016 00500 8/010
END
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
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