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OK0NAG > SOLAR 25.09.11 14:41l 160 Lines 6355 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Sep 25 1236 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU268
UGEOA 30512 10925 1232/ 9930/
12252 21252 37252
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 25 Sep 2011 until 27 Sep
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 190 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 190 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 019
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very high. After the X-flare peaking at
9h40 yesterday morning, as much as 11 M-flares were observed. The main
source region was Catania 82 (NOAA AR 1302) with an M7.1 (peak time
13:17 UT yesterday), M3.1 (17:25 UT), M2.8 (18:15 UT), M3.0 (19:21 UT),
M5.8 (20:36 UT), M4.4 (02:31 UT today), M7.4 (04:50 UT) and M3.1 (08:49
UT) flare. The other contributing regions were Catania 72 (NOAA AR 1295)
with an M1.8 flare peaking at 16:59 UT yesterday and NOAA AR 1303 (no
Catania number yet) with an M1.0 flare with around midnight peak time
23:57 UT and an M1.5 flare peaking at 09:34 UT today. With the GOES
X-ray flux background at high C-level, we can certainly expect more
M-flares, with a reasonable possibility for another X-class event.
Several CME's were observed associated to the flares mentioned above.
The M7.1 event yesterday was accompanied by a partial halo CME observed
in SOHO/LASCO starting from 12h48. It speed was estimated to be around
1050 km/s based on the STEREO coronograph data. Other CME's observed by
STEREO A and B and SOHO/LASCO can be associated with the M3.0, M5.8 and
M1.0 flares yesterday as well as with the M4.4, C7.9 (peak time, 03h31,
Cat 82, NOAA 13020), M7.4 and M3.1 flares today. PROBA2/SWAP and SDO/AIA
data show a clear EUV wave associated with the M7 flare today. As none
of the source regions of these CME's are in the center of the solar
disk, we only expect possible glancing blows fram these events.
The GOES proton flux level remains elevated (>10MeV) and is further
increased by the current solar activity. A shock is observed in the
solar wind parameters measured by ACE around 11 UT this morning,
possibly related to the CME associated with the X flare on September 22.
The total magnetic filed strength jumped to 10 nT, while the solar wind
speed increased to 380 km/s. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet.
We expect them to increase to unsettled to active starting late this
evening as a result of al the CME's in the past hours.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 079, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 10925 1232/ 24///
1//// 21904 3004/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
24 0921 0940 0948 N12E60 X1.9 2B 660 II/2,IV/3,V/2,III/2
82 1302
24 1233 1320 1410 M7.1 12000 82
1302
24 1719 1725 1731 M3.1 SF 82
1302
24 1759 1815 1824 N15E56 M2.8 1B 82
1302
24 1909 1921 1941 M3.0 270 III/2,II/2
82 1302
24 2029 2036 2042 M5.8 82
1302
24 2345 2358 0009 S29W68 M1.0 SF IV/1,VI/2
1303
25 0227 0233 0237 N12E49 M4.4 SF 82
1302
END
UGEOR 30512 10925 1232/ 23/07 25105
10072 2//// 3//// 4522/ 50240 60014 46423 29500
10074 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 44725 19100
10080 2//// 3//// 4522/ 50130 60023 12320 00000
10081 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 20215 00000
10082 2//// 3//// 4642/ 50380 60017 17013 29720
99999
USSPS 32404 24085 07532 76039 47523 51504 84007 11218 21611 85092
15514 57607 87001 13213 01202 88000 35728 0/101
USSPS 21305 24164 10242 97011 10801 34523 01001 12712 31302 98076
16713 47522 00005 36329 11302 89036 48123 51403
USSPS 81202 25028 11522 80006 18011 2/801 76114 14912 47621 79002
12011 01205 75009 10119 24521 78008 36827 21306 68018 48625 2/801
UMAGF 30503 10925 1004/ 24062 1/011 22321 31200
UMAGF 31523 10925 ///// 2400/ 1/004 20012 32122
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