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OK0NAG > SOLAR 22.09.11 23:14l 225 Lines 7481 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 22 2205 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Activity was high. New Region 1302 (N11E74) produced a
long-duration X1/2n flare at 22/1101Z. The X1 flare was associated
with Types II and IV radio sweeps, a 970 sfu Tenflare, and a full
CME. The CME, already in progress in SOHO LASCO images at 22/1330Z,
had an estimated speed of around 1392 km/s. This CME is not expected
to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be high,
with a slight chance for another X-class flare from Region 1302.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on days one and two (23-24 September). Quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active levels at high latitudes, are
expected on day three (25 September), due to a weak coronal hole
high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 151
Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 155/160/165
90 Day Mean 22 Sep 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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