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OK0NAG > SOLAR 13.09.11 00:04l 243 Lines 8030 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1292 (N08E52) produced two C-class flares, the largest a C2 at
12/0329Z. Regions 1293 (N17W11), 1294 (S18E27), and 1295 (N21E72)
were numbered today. Region 1295 produced a C9 at 12/2054Z. The
region is considered an H-type group but is still rotating around
the limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class events for the next three days
(13-15 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active during the past 24
hours due to effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for
days one and two (13-14 September) due to effects from a CH HSS.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (15 September) as
CH HSS effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 124
Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 12 Sep 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 018/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 010/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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