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OK0NAG > SOLAR 10.09.11 14:06l 141 Lines 5808 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Sep 10 1202 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU253
UGEOA 30512 10910 1153/ 9930/
12102 22102 38102
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 10 Sep 2011 until 12 Sep
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 029
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 114 / AP: 043
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 112 / AP: 049
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at active levels. NOAA AR 11283
produced an M1.2 flare on September 9 with peak time 12:49 UT and an
M1.1 flare on September 10 with peak time 07:18 UT (causing a type III
radio sweep). The second M flare was possibly triggered by a filament
eruption near NOAA AR 11283 at 01:28 UT on September 10. Proton levels
were not affected. More M flares or even X flares are possible from this
region, with risks for proton events.
A new (frontsided partial halo) CME was observed by LASCO and COR2 A
and B around 03:40 UT on September 10, probably associated with the
filament eruption of 01:28 UT. More data are needed in order to estimate
its geomagnetic effects. At 11:50 UT on September 9, the ACE satellite
registered an interplanetary shock, indicating the arrival of several
CMEs associated with the September 6-7 major flare activity. Bt reached
up to 25 nT, Bz dropped to -23 nT, density spiked up to 35 p/cc, wind
speeds peaked at 602 km/s, and temperature increased. Active geomagnetic
conditions were observed from September 9, 12 UT till September 10, 7
UT. A minor geomagnetic storm took place between 13 and 17 UT on
September 9 and between 23 UT on September 9 and 2 UT on September 10,
and an isolated period of major storm was observed around 17 UT on
September 9. Geomagnetic conditions returned to quiet around 8 UT on
September 10, but ACE solar wind data shows that the Earth is still
inside the magnetic cloud. On September 11, the Earth is expected to
encounter a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The CME of
September 7, 23:12 UT is expected to arrive at Earth from the second
part of September 11 onwards. Active conditions are possible from now
until September 13, with a chance for a minor storm on the second half
of September 11 and on September 12.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 051, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 10910 1153/ 09///
10079 21120 3//// 4//// 80004 90590
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
09 1239 1249 1256 N13W52 M1.2 1F 54
1283
10 0718 0740 0756 N12W61 M1.1 SN III/1
54 1283
END
UGEOR 30512 10910 1153/ 10/07 10105
10054 2//// 3//// 4521/ 50170 60008 45814 27511
10059 2//// 3//// 472// 50060 60003 32029 02000
10061 2//// 3//// 4453/ 50320 60012 13223 15200
10062 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50040 60007 22614 02000
10063 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60002 10723 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 09080 05932 65021 44515 51309 67005 30729 21303 69042
14723 41403 70002 24015 11304
USSPS 21305 09207 06932 82036 14322 51405 83005 23316 31406 80007
31530 31305 76018 45813 14413
USSPS 81202 10025 09832 54024 46014 24410 57007 31729 2/803 61001
30733 0/101 62001 11023 11302 59049 13823 41415 60006 22915 11407
USSPS 31405 10070 08242 54017 45814 23508 59006 32029 2/903 61032
13223 58412 62004 22614 24407 63001 10723 01202
UMAGF 30503 10910 1004/ 09065 1/072 22145 36654
UCMEO 93001 10908 1930/ 10907 61848 80054 2782/ 157// 323// 40959
10907 61826 81836 ///// ///// 1222/ 99999 PLAIN
UCMEO 93001 10909 1715/ 10908 62212 80432 2142/ 089// 323// 41104
10908 62145 82205 ///// 11280 1112/ 99999 PLAIN
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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