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OK0NAG > SOLAR 09.09.11 14:57l 128 Lines 4767 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Sep 09 1353 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU252
UGEOA 30512 10909 1153/ 9930/
12092 22092 38092
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 09 Sep 2011 until 11 Sep
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 028
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 109 / AP: 034
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 108 / AP: 029
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at active levels. NOAA AR 11283
produced an M6.7 flare on September 8 with peak time 15:46 UT (causing
type III and IV radio sweeps) and an M6.7 flare on September 9 with peak
time 06:11 UT (causing type II and III radio sweeps). Proton levels were
not affected. More M flares or even X flares are possible from this
region, with risks for proton events.
Two new CMEs were observed by LASCO on September 8, 22:24 UT and
September 9, 08:00 UT. At present, more information is needed to decide
whether they may have geomagnetic effects. At 12:00 UT on September 9,
a
shock was observed in the ACE solar wind parameters, indicating the
arrival of the CME of September 6, 22:36 UT. A minor geomagnetic storm
is expected within the next hours, with a chance for a major storm. The
CME of September 7, 23:12 UT is expected to arrive at Earth from the
second part of September 11 onwards, with a chance for active levels in
the second half of September 11, and for a minor storm on September 12.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 044, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 10909 1153/ 08///
10079 21100 3//// 4//// 80105 90460
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
08 1532 1546 1552 N14W40 M6.7 1N 91 III/1,IV/1
54 1283
09 0601 0611 0617 N16W47 M2.7 1N 62 II/1,III/1
54 1283
END
UGEOR 30512 10909 1153/ 09/07 09104
10054 2//// 3//// 4552/ 50180 60020 44514 17422
10059 2//// 3//// 472// 50060 60004 30729 03000
10061 2//// 3//// 4351/ 50330 60009 14523 15200
10062 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50020 60006 23914 03000
99999
USSPS 32404 08099 04332 65016 43417 51308 67004 20330 2/801 69030
16021 41404
USSPS 21305 08150 04232 76011 43515 31307 80005 20230 2/801 82029
15622 51304
USSPS 81202 09010 07232 59034 15021 41310 60003 24215 21306 57006
30329 2/801 54021 44119 34515
USSPS 31405 09071 07932 54018 44514 54520 59006 30729 2/904 61033
14523 51309 62002 23914 01206
UMAGF 30503 10909 1004/ 08069 1/005 21110 30001
UCMEO 93001 10908 1730/ 10907 62305 81054 1591/ 073// 323// 40834
10907 62236 82339 42814 11283 1112/ 99999 PLAIN
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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