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OK0NAG > SOLAR 08.09.11 14:32l 129 Lines 4784 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU251
UGEOA 30512 10908 1213/ 9930/
12082 21082 38082
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 08 Sep 2011 until 10 Sep
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 109 / AP: 020
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 107 / AP: 037
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at active levels. An X1.8 flare
occurred on September 7 with peak time 22:38 UT. It was produced by NOAA
AR 11283, which had previously produced the X2.1 flare of September 6
with peak time 22:20 UT. While the flare was accompanied by a class II
radio burst, proton levels were not affected and are still decreasing.
More M flares or even X flares are possible from this region, with risks
for proton events. Beta region NOAA AR 11289 near the east limb may also
produce an M flare.
The X1.8 flare of September 7, 22:38 UT produced a new frontsided halo
having the bulk of its material towards the northwest. A tentative
velocity of 541 km/s was calculated from COR2 B (plagued by data gaps).
We do not expect this CME to arrive at Earth before the second half of
September 11. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet so far, but the
frontsided halo CME of September 6, 22:36 UT (associated with the X2.1
flare) will probably arrive at Earth in or after the second half of
September 9, and may cause active levels on September 9, with a chance
for a minor storm on September 10.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 036, BASED ON 06 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 10908 1213/ 07///
10090 21131 3006/ 4//// 80105 90450
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
07 2232 2238 2244 N14W28 X1.8 3B 1300 III/2,II/1,IV/1
54 1283
END
UGEOR 30512 10908 1213/ 08/06 08105
10053 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 36718 00000
10054 2//// 3//// 4552/ 50190 60015 43214 27533
10059 2//// 3//// 472// 50050 60003 20629 03000
10061 2//// 3//// 4452/ 50200 60007 15723 16200
10062 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 10419 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 07082 06032 59001 35015 01202 65023 42314 54414 67010
21830 2/801 69028 17523 41303
USSPS 81202 08010 05632 59044 16521 41304 57007 20830 2/801 54033
43016 34521
USSPS 31405 08065 07942 53001 36718 0/102 54019 43214 54515 59005
20629 2/903 61020 15723 54407 62001 10419 0/102
UMAGF 30503 10908 1004/ 07068 1/008 21211 32111
UMAGF 31523 10908 ///// 0700/ 1/006 23111 32131
UCMEO 93001 10907 1700/ 10906 62305 80618 3201/ 319// 323// 40626
10906 62215 82300 41814 11283 1112/ 99999 PLAIN
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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