| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 04.09.11 00:06l 297 Lines 9867 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : 39LOK0NAG00T
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0PTU<OK0NAG
Sent: 110903/2205z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 3 Sep 2011 22:04:53 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1315086476-03b348676d846c00001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 03 Sep 2011 22:04:58.0525 (UTC) FILETIME=[8539BCD0:01CC6A85]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.233
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.73560Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1315086476
----boundary_149567_56540831-efbf-4912-9a9a-a7a23d490e81
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels due to several C-class
events observed during the period. As it approached the west limb,
Region 1280 (N12W78) produced three C-class flares, the largest a
C2/Sf at 03/1736Z. Region 1281 (S19W10) produced a C2/Sf at
03/0756Z. Region 1282 (N23W52) indicated decay in its intermediate
spots, but developed a delta magnetic structure in the large leader
spot. Two new regions were numbered during the period. New Region
1286 (N20W57) rapidly emerged as an eight spot D-type group and
produced a C1 x-ray event at 03/1846Z. New Region 1287 (S30E64)
rotated onto the disk as a three spot C-type group. All remaining
regions were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (04 - 06 September) with a slight chance for
M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated active period observed at Boulder between 03/0900Z - 1200Z.
At about 03/0100Z, observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated an
increase in temperature, density and wind speed. These increases,
coupled with a brief period of southward Bz to -12nT and an increase
in Bt to 13nT, were indicative of a co-rotating interaction region
in advance of a coronal hole high speed stream. During the period,
wind speed increased from about 275 km/s to near 425 km/s while Bz
generally fluctuated between +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for
isolated active periods, on day one (04 September) as the coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) persists. Days two and three (05 -
06 September) will see a return to mostly quiet levels as the CH HSS
moves out of a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 119
Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 03 Sep 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_149567_56540831-efbf-4912-9a9a-a7a23d490e81
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64
PCFET0NUWVBFIEhUTUwgUFVCTElDICItLy9XM0MvL0RURCBIVE1MIDQuMCBUcmFuc2l0aW9u
YWwvL0VOIj48SFRNTD48SEVBRD48TUVUQSBodHRwLWVxdWl2PUNvbnRlbnQtVHlwZSBjb250
ZW50PSJ0ZXh0L2h0bWw7IGNoYXJzZXQ9aXNvLTg4NTktMSI+PC9IRUFEPjxCT0RZPjxQUkU+
OlByb2R1Y3Q6IFJlcG9ydCBvZiBTb2xhci1HZW9waHlzaWNhbCBBY3Rpdml0eQ0KOklzc3Vl
ZDogMjAxMSBTZXAgMDMgMjIwMCBVVEMNCiMgUHJlcGFyZWQgam9pbnRseSBieSB0aGUgVS5T
LiBEZXB0LiBvZiBDb21tZXJjZSwgTk9BQSwNCiMgU3BhY2UgV2VhdGhlciBQcmVkaWN0aW9u
IENlbnRlciBhbmQgdGhlIFUuUy4gQWlyIEZvcmNlLg0KIw0KSm9pbnQgVVNBRi9OT0FBIFJl
cG9ydCBvZiBTb2xhciBhbmQgR2VvcGh5c2ljYWwgQWN0aXZpdHkNClNERiBOdW1iZXIgMjQ2
IElzc3VlZCBhdCAyMjAwWiBvbiAwMyBTZXAgMjAxMQ0KSUEuICBBbmFseXNpcyBvZiBTb2xh
ciBBY3RpdmUgUmVnaW9ucyBhbmQgQWN0aXZpdHkgZnJvbSAgMDIvMjEwMFoNCnRvIDAzLzIx
MDBaOiAgU29sYXIgYWN0aXZpdHkgd2FzIGF0IGxvdyBsZXZlbHMgZHVlIHRvIHNldmVyYWwg
Qy1jbGFzcw0KZXZlbnRzIG9ic2VydmVkIGR1cmluZyB0aGUgcGVyaW9kLiBBcyBpdCBhcHBy
b2FjaGVkIHRoZSB3ZXN0IGxpbWIsDQpSZWdpb24gMTI4MCAoTjEyVzc4KSBwcm9kdWNlZCB0
aHJlZSBDLWNsYXNzIGZsYXJlcywgdGhlIGxhcmdlc3QgYQ0KQzIvU2YgYXQgMDMvMTczNlou
IFJlZ2lvbiAxMjgxIChTMTlXMTApIHByb2R1Y2VkIGEgQzIvU2YgYXQNCjAzLzA3NTZaLiBS
ZWdpb24gMTI4MiAoTjIzVzUyKSBpbmRpY2F0ZWQgZGVjYXkgaW4gaXRzIGludGVybWVkaWF0
ZQ0Kc3BvdHMsIGJ1dCBkZXZlbG9wZWQgYSBkZWx0YSBtYWduZXRpYyBzdHJ1Y3R1cmUgaW4g
dGhlIGxhcmdlIGxlYWRlcg0Kc3BvdC4gVHdvIG5ldyByZWdpb25zIHdlcmUgbnVtYmVyZWQg
ZHVyaW5nIHRoZSBwZXJpb2QuIE5ldyBSZWdpb24NCjEyODYgKE4yMFc1NykgcmFwaWRseSBl
bWVyZ2VkIGFzIGFuIGVpZ2h0IHNwb3QgRC10eXBlIGdyb3VwIGFuZA0KcHJvZHVjZWQgYSBD
MSB4LXJheSBldmVudCBhdCAwMy8xODQ2Wi4gTmV3IFJlZ2lvbiAxMjg3IChTMzBFNjQpDQpy
b3RhdGVkIG9udG8gdGhlIGRpc2sgYXMgYSB0aHJlZSBzcG90IEMtdHlwZSBncm91cC4gQWxs
IHJlbWFpbmluZw0KcmVnaW9ucyB3ZXJlIHF1aWV0IGFuZCBzdGFibGUuIE5vIEVhcnRoLWRp
cmVjdGVkIENNRXMgd2VyZSBkZXRlY3RlZA0KZHVyaW5nIHRoZSBwZXJpb2QuDQpJQi4gIFNv
bGFyIEFjdGl2aXR5IEZvcmVjYXN0OiAgU29sYXIgYWN0aXZpdHkgaXMgZXhwZWN0ZWQgdG8g
YmUgbG93DQpmb3IgdGhlIG5leHQgdGhyZWUgZGF5cyAoMDQgLSAwNiBTZXB0ZW1iZXIpIHdp
dGggYSBzbGlnaHQgY2hhbmNlIGZvcg0KTS1jbGFzcyBhY3Rpdml0eS4NCklJQS4gIEdlb3Bo
eXNpY2FsIEFjdGl2aXR5IFN1bW1hcnkgMDIvMjEwMFogdG8gMDMvMjEwMFo6DQpUaGUgZ2Vv
bWFnbmV0aWMgZmllbGQgd2FzIGF0IHF1aWV0IHRvIHVuc2V0dGxlZCBsZXZlbHMgd2l0aCBh
bg0KaXNvbGF0ZWQgYWN0aXZlIHBlcmlvZCBvYnNlcnZlZCBhdCBCb3VsZGVyIGJldHdlZW4g
MDMvMDkwMFogLSAxMjAwWi4NCkF0IGFib3V0IDAzLzAxMDBaLCBvYnNlcnZhdGlvbnMgZnJv
bSB0aGUgQUNFIHNwYWNlY3JhZnQgaW5kaWNhdGVkIGFuDQppbmNyZWFzZSBpbiB0ZW1wZXJh
dHVyZSwgZGVuc2l0eSBhbmQgd2luZCBzcGVlZC4gVGhlc2UgaW5jcmVhc2VzLA0KY291cGxl
ZCB3aXRoIGEgYnJpZWYgcGVyaW9kIG9mIHNvdXRod2FyZCBCeiB0byAtMTJuVCBhbmQgYW4g
aW5jcmVhc2UNCmluIEJ0IHRvIDEzblQsIHdlcmUgaW5kaWNhdGl2ZSBvZiBhIGNvLXJvdGF0
aW5nIGludGVyYWN0aW9uIHJlZ2lvbg0KaW4gYWR2YW5jZSBvZiBhIGNvcm9uYWwgaG9sZSBo
aWdoIHNwZWVkIHN0cmVhbS4gIER1cmluZyB0aGUgcGVyaW9kLA0Kd2luZCBzcGVlZCBpbmNy
ZWFzZWQgZnJvbSBhYm91dCAyNzUga20vcyB0byBuZWFyIDQyNSBrbS9zIHdoaWxlIEJ6DQpn
ZW5lcmFsbHkgZmx1Y3R1YXRlZCBiZXR3ZWVuICsvLSA1IG5ULg0KSUlCLiAgR2VvcGh5c2lj
YWwgQWN0aXZpdHkgRm9yZWNhc3Q6ICBUaGUgZ2VvbWFnbmV0aWMgZmllbGQgaXMNCmV4cGVj
dGVkIHRvIGJlIGF0IHF1aWV0IHRvIHVuc2V0dGxlZCBsZXZlbHMsIHdpdGggYSBjaGFuY2Ug
Zm9yDQppc29sYXRlZCBhY3RpdmUgcGVyaW9kcywgb24gZGF5IG9uZSAoMDQgU2VwdGVtYmVy
KSBhcyB0aGUgY29yb25hbA0KaG9sZSBoaWdoIHNwZWVkIHN0cmVhbSAoQ0ggSFNTKSBwZXJz
aXN0cy4gRGF5cyB0d28gYW5kIHRocmVlICgwNSAtDQowNiBTZXB0ZW1iZXIpIHdpbGwgc2Vl
IGEgcmV0dXJuIHRvIG1vc3RseSBxdWlldCBsZXZlbHMgYXMgdGhlIENIIEhTUw0KbW92ZXMg
b3V0IG9mIGEgZ2VvZWZmZWN0aXZlIHBvc2l0aW9uLg0KSUlJLiAgRXZlbnQgUHJvYmFiaWxp
dGllcyAwNCBTZXAtMDYgU2VwDQpDbGFzcyBNICAgIDE1LzE1LzE1DQpDbGFzcyBYICAgIDAx
LzAxLzAxDQpQcm90b24gICAgIDAxLzAxLzAxDQpQQ0FGICAgICAgIEdyZWVuDQpJVi4gIFBl
bnRpY3RvbiAxMC43IGNtIEZsdXgNCk9ic2VydmVkICAgICAgICAgICAwMyBTZXAgMTE5DQpQ
cmVkaWN0ZWQgICAwNCBTZXAtMDYgU2VwICAxMjAvMTIwLzExNQ0KOTAgRGF5IE1lYW4gICAg
ICAgIDAzIFNlcCAwOTcNClYuICBHZW9tYWduZXRpYyBBIEluZGljZXMNCk9ic2VydmVkIEFm
ci9BcCAwMiBTZXAgIDAwMS8wMDMNCkVzdGltYXRlZCBBZnIvQXAgMDMgU2VwICAwMTEvMDEx
DQpQcmVkaWN0ZWQgQWZyL0FwIDA0IFNlcC0wNiBTZXAgIDAwOC8wMDgtMDA1LzAwNS0wMDUv
MDA1DQpWSS4gIEdlb21hZ25ldGljIEFjdGl2aXR5IFByb2JhYmlsaXRpZXMgMDQgU2VwLTA2
IFNlcA0KQS4gIE1pZGRsZSBMYXRpdHVkZXMNCkFjdGl2ZSAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAyMC8x
NS8xMA0KTWlub3Igc3Rvcm0gICAgICAgICAgIDA1LzAxLzAxDQpNYWpvci1zZXZlcmUgc3Rv
cm0gICAgMDEvMDEvMDENCkIuICBIaWdoIExhdGl0dWRlcw0KQWN0aXZlICAgICAgICAgICAg
ICAgIDI1LzIwLzE1DQpNaW5vciBzdG9ybSAgICAgICAgICAgMTAvMDUvMDENCk1ham9yLXNl
dmVyZSBzdG9ybSAgICAwMS8wMS8wMQ0KPC9QUkU+PEJSPjxIUj5UaGFuayB5b3UgZm9yIHVz
aW5nIHRoZSBQcm9kdWN0IFN1YnNjcmlwdGlvbiBTZXJ2aWNlLiBJZiB5b3Ugd291bGQgbGlr
ZSB0byByZW1vdmUgYSBwcm9kdWN0IHN1YnNjcmlwdGlvbiBvciB1cGRhdGUgdGhlIHBlcnNv
bmFsIGluZm9ybWF0aW9uIGluIHlvdXIgYWNjb3VudCwgZ28gdG8gdGhlIDxhIGhyZWY9Imh0
dHBzOi8vcHNzLnN3cGMubm9hYS5nb3YiPlByb2R1Y3QgU3Vic2NyaXB0aW9uIFNpdGUuPC9h
PiBQbGVhc2UgZG8gbm90IHVzZSB0aGUgZnJvbSBhZGRyZXNzIGZvciBjb3JyZXNwb25kZW5j
ZSwgYXMgaXQgaXMgbm90IG1vbml0b3JlZC4gRm9yIGNvbW1lbnRzIG9yIGhlbHAsIHBsZWFz
ZSBjb250YWN0IDxhIGhyZWY9Im1haWx0bzpwc3MuaGVscEBub2FhLmdvdiI+U1dQQyBIZWxw
LjwvYT48L0JPRFk+PC9IVE1MPg=----boundary_149567_56540831-efbf-4912-9a9a-a7a23d490e81--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
