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OK0NAG > SOLAR 06.08.11 14:12l 106 Lines 3899 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Aug 06 1209 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU218
UGEOA 30512 10806 1159/ 9930/
12062 21062 30062
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 06 Aug 2011 until 08 Aug
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 102 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 097 / AP: 004
COMMENT: A strong geomagnetic storm (NOAA's estimated Kp = 8) was
triggered last night by the arrival of the CME activity of Aug 4. The Bz
component of the IMF went down to -20nT for several hours and the solar
wind speed jumped from 400 to 650 km/s. At this moment we are still at
Kp=4 but the Bz component of the IMF is positive again. This suggests
that the worst of the geomagnetic storm has passed and that we are
returning to quiet geomagnetic conditions. Meanwhile on the Sun, the
trailing side of NOAA 1263 continues to grow, while NOAA 1267 (SE
quadrant) released a C4.1 flare. The combination of these two facts
leads us to a just over 50% chance forecast for an M-flare in the coming
day(s).
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 052, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 10806 1159/ 05///
1//// 21090 3045/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
USSPS 32404 05076 09332 32012 48319 2/801 33022 45314 31513 34047
42217 57521 37002 13817 01204 38002 23517 01204
USSPS 21305 05159 07242 46036 46014 27406 48054 42616 47415 50001
15521 0/101 51006 23217 01210
USSPS 81202 06040 09432 37001 14616 01204 36007 22518 21414 33047
43018 47524 31018 46517 24412
UMAGF 30503 10806 1004/ 05068 1/060 21213 36654
UMAGF 31523 10806 ///// 0500/ 1/045 24312 31477
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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