| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 02.08.11 23:03l 299 Lines 9915 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : 28LOK0NAG00N
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<DB0RES<OK0PPL<OK0NAG
Sent: 110802/2201z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 2 Aug 2011 22:01:00 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1312321700-03b348676d39cc30001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 02 Aug 2011 22:00:59.0406 (UTC) FILETIME=[A97B12E0:01CC515F]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.25
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.70725Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1312321700
----boundary_114414_9a8f1a8e-5232-4281-b761-087c6b417b03
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
Region 1261 (N15W21) produced a long duration M1/1N flare at
02/0619Z with associated Type IV, Type II (estimated speed of 1067
km/s), and Tenflare (220 sfu) radio emissions. LASCO C3 imagery
indicated a full halo coronal mass ejection also associated with
this event. Region 1261 maintained its Fkc type spot group
classification and Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Region
1263 ((N17E08) produced multiple C-class events and maintained its
Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration. Region 1260 (N15W21) remained quiet
and stable. Region 1265 (N16W80) was quiet as it began to rotate
off the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a slight chance for a major event for the next
three days (03-05 August). Region 1261 and Region 1263 are both
capable of producing a major event and both have a slight chance of
producing an energetic proton event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. Solar wind
data observed at the ACE satellite indicated a decrease in solar
wind speed from 550 km/s to 450 km/s as the effects from the coronal
hole high speed stream waned. The GOES 13 satellite observed an
enhancement of the 10 MeV protons associated with the period's M1
flare.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (03 August). Day two is expected to
be predominately quiet with chance a for isolated active conditions
late in the day. Day three (05 August) is expected to be unsettled
to active with a chance for minor storm conditions. The increase in
activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of the coronal mass
ejection from 02/0616Z. Due to the enhanced environment there is a
chance for the 10 MeV protons to cross event thresholds with shock
arrival.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M 65/65/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 15/15/20
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 122
Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 02 Aug 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 005/005-012/012-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/40/45
Minor storm 01/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/40/45
Minor storm 01/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/10
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_114414_9a8f1a8e-5232-4281-b761-087c6b417b03
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_114414_9a8f1a8e-5232-4281-b761-087c6b417b03--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
