| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 12.05.11 00:05l 276 Lines 9210 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : B5LOK0NAG00M
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<DB0RES<DK0WUE<IK6ZDE<OK0NAG
Sent: 110511/2204z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 11 May 2011 22:03:38 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1305150998-03b348271330590001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 11 May 2011 22:07:26.0046 (UTC) FILETIME=[CFA667E0:01CC1027]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.301
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.63460Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-brts-evidence: 12e4a3864ec10d933bc1530f73c2e58c-3221-htm
X-barracuda-start-time: 1305150998
----boundary_408000_9e11394c-8700-4631-9b31-9234f9cbdfe2
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 May 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A B8 x-ray flare occurred
at 11/0243Z, likely associated with a filament eruption between
Regions 1205 (N14W75) and 1207 (N21W51). The flare was associated
with a Type II radio sweep and a partial-halo coronal mass ejection
(CME). The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 420 km/s,
based on SOHO/LASCO images. No significant changes occurred in any
of the spotted regions. New Region 1212 (S13E46) was numbered and
was classified as a single-spot Axx region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low during the period (12 - 14 May) with a chance for isolated
C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE solar wind
data indicated Earth remained under the influence of a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds ranged
from 352 to 414 km/sec with no discernible trend. A slight increase
in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux occurred in the wake of the
B8 flare mentioned above.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (12 May) with
a chance for minor storm levels as the CH HSS persists. The CME
observed late on 09 May may also disturb the field on May 12.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day
2 (13 May) as the CH HSS begins to subside. Activity is expected to
decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (14 May). The CME observed today
is not expected to affect the field during the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 094
Predicted 12 May-14 May 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 11 May 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 015/015-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/10/05
Minor storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/15/10
Minor storm 20/10/01
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_408000_9e11394c-8700-4631-9b31-9234f9cbdfe2
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_408000_9e11394c-8700-4631-9b31-9234f9cbdfe2--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
