| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 27.03.11 00:05l 308 Lines 10343 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : Q3LOK0NAG00S
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<DB0RES<DK0WUE<IK6ZDE<OK0NAG
Sent: 110326/2204z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 26 Mar 2011 22:04:32 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1301177037-03b3480d9b3f5e0001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 26 Mar 2011 22:07:22.0562 (UTC) FILETIME=[2E924A20:01CBEC02]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.332
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.59059Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1301177037
----boundary_635578_556696b5-b0d0-42c5-99fc-33e73e3ea822
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Mar 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate due to an impulsive M1
X-ray event at 25/2322Z from Region 1176 (S16E16). Associated with
this event were Type II (673 km/s), Type IV and 10.7 cm (170 sfu)
radio signatures. Region 1176 remained mostly unchanged through the
period, though it increased in longitudinal extent, and is
classified as an F-type group. Region 1178 (S15E43) developed
penumbra in its trailer spots to become a D-type group. At about
26/0500Z, GOES-15 SXI BE12A imagery observed a large surge from
Region 1180 (N25E53) that appeared to continue for about six hours.
X-ray data was mostly unavailable during this event due to GOES-13
and GOES-15 eclipse phase. Associated with this event was a
fast-moving (approximately 850 km/s) partial-halo, asymmetric CME
first observed in LASCO C3 imagery at 26/0630Z and STEREO-A and B
COR2 imagery at 26/0709Z. Though this CME does not appear to have an
Earth-directed component, further analysis is required.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (27 - 29 March). A chance for M-class
activity exists on day one (27 March) becoming likely on days two
and three (28 - 29 March) with a slight chance for X-class activity
on 29 March. This expected increase in activity is due to the
complex nature of Region 1176 and the return of old Region 1166
(N10, L=110) on 27 March. On its last transit across the disk, old
Region 1166 produced four M-class events and one X-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE solar wind data
indicated a gradual decrease in wind velocities from a high of 460
km/s at 26/0243Z to a low of 360 km/s at 26/1841Z. IMF Bz was
predominately north through the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for day one (27 March). By day
two (28 March), quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active
periods, are possible due to effects from the 24 March CME. Quiet
levels are expected to return on day three (29 March).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M 50/60/70
Class X 05/05/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 115
Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 120/125/125
90 Day Mean 26 Mar 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 005/005-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/10
Minor storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/25/15
Minor storm 01/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_635578_556696b5-b0d0-42c5-99fc-33e73e3ea822
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_635578_556696b5-b0d0-42c5-99fc-33e73e3ea822--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
