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OK0NAG > SOLAR 15.03.11 14:04l 124 Lines 4733 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Mar 15 1254 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU074
UGEOA 30512 10315 1226/ 9930/
12152 20152 38152
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 15 Mar 2011 until 17 Mar
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Mar 2011 10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Mar 2011 10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Mar 2011 10CM FLUX: 104 / AP: 003
COMMENT: Four sunspot groups are currently reported on the solar disk:
Catania numbers 22, 26, 28 (NOAA ARs 1166, 1169, 1172) and 27 (no NOAA
number yet). C-class flares occur and can be expected to occur further
on in Catania sunspot groups 22, 26 and 28. Two M-class flares occurred
during the last 24 hours: M4.2 and M1.0 peaking respectively at 19:52 UT
yesterday and at 00:22 today. The first flare occurred in the Catania
sunspot group 26 (NOAA AR 1169). The location of the second flare
(Catania sunspot groups 22 or 26) is still unclear based on the data
available at the time of writing. Both Catania sunspot groups 22 and 26
have a beta-gamma configuration of their photospheric magnetic fields
and therefore keep a potential of producing an M-flare. Due to the
position of both active regions close to the west solar limb, a strong
CME originating in any of them may lead to an energetic particle event
at the Earth. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 450 km/s)
solar wind flow with average (5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field
magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 029, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 10315 1226/ 14///
1//// 21070 3002/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
14 1930 1952 1954 N18W48 M4.2 1N 26
1169
15 0018 0022 0024 M1.0 26
1169 Location and AR are still not clear
END
UGEOR 30512 10315 1226/ 15/10 15104
10022 2//// 3//// 4421/ 50020 60002 48512 17201
10026 2//// 3//// 4522/ 50130 60011 45619 19301
10027 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 42507 00000
10028 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 12011 15000
99999
USSPS 21305 14153 04632 32018 47210 34410 35023 44718 34405 38001
13212 0/101
USSPS 81202 15023 04732 24015 48512 44405 27034 45217 47410 29002
13010 01202
USSPS 31405 15103 05632 22002 48512 23402 26013 45619 25511 27001
42507 0/102 28001 12011 0/101
UMAGF 30503 10314 1004/ 13069 1/021 21224 34221
UMAGF 30503 10315 1004/ 14065 1/003 21100 30000
UMAGF 31523 10315 ///// 1400/ 1/002 22111 30000
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
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