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OK0NAG > SOLAR 15.03.11 00:04l 233 Lines 7641 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Mar 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1169 (N18W47)
produced an impulsive M4/1n flare at 14/1952Z with associated radio
bursts at the higher range (4995, 8800, 15400 MHz). Region 1166
(N09W78) and 1169 are both Dao type spot groups and contain a
beta-gamma magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class event for day one (15 March). Low
activity with a slight chance for an M-class event are expected for
days two and three (16-17 March) as Regions 1166 and 1169 make their
transit around the west limb of the sun.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speeds observed by the
ACE spacecraft continue to average around 550 km/s under the
influence of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (15-17
March).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M 40/20/15
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 107
Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 14 Mar 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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