| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 08.01.11 23:06l 248 Lines 7699 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : 81LOK0NAG00Z
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<DB0RES<DK0WUE<IK6ZDE<OK0NAG
Sent: 110108/2205z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
Date: 8 Jan 2011 22:05:12 +0000
X-asg-debug-id: 1294524022-063407440001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 08 Jan 2011 22:06:21.0796 (UTC) FILETIME=[488B6240:01CBAF80]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.393
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.99:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1294524022
----boundary_259683_919be150-501b-4348-9fb4-e67afdbb535b
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1139
(S29W87) produced a B2 flare at 08/0923Z as it approached the west
limb. Region 1140 (N33W36) showed no significant changes and
remained a C-type group with minor magnetic complexity. Region 1143
(S23E02) decayed to a B-type group with a simple bipolar magnetic
configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (09 - 11 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind data indicated Earth remained under the influence of a
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities
varied from 581 to 672 km/s during the period. Interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) intensity remained enhanced (peak 6 nT), while
IMF Bz was variable at -4 to +6 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (09 -
10 January). Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels
on day 3 (11 January) as the coronal hole high-speed stream
subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 085
Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 084/084/082
90 Day Mean 08 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_259683_919be150-501b-4348-9fb4-e67afdbb535b
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_259683_919be150-501b-4348-9fb4-e67afdbb535b--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
