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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.01.11 18:06l 103 Lines 3644 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Monthly Ri Report
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Date: Sat, 1 Jan 2011 16:04:46 GMT
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
December 2010 : 14.5 (fourteen point five)
Maximum : 31 on 4 // Minimum : 0 on 18, 19, 20, 21
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for December 2010 :
1.. 19 6.. 17 11.. 16 16.. 14 21.. 0 26.. 20 31.. 27
2.. 21 7.. 18 12.. 16 17.. 7 22.. 10 27.. 10
3.. 24 8.. 18 13.. 28 18.. 0 23.. 10 28.. 13
4.. 31 9.. 17 14.. 16 19.. 0 24.. 8 29.. 11
5.. 26 10.. 21 15.. 8 20.. 0 25.. 15 30.. 8
67 cooperating stations on January 1, 16 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for June 2010 : 16.4 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2010 Jul 17 20 2011 Jan 29 52 2011 Jul 45 75
Aug 17 26 Feb 31 56 Aug 48 79
Sep 20 31 Mar 34 60 Sep 51 82
Oct 22 37 Apr 37 64 Oct 54 85
Nov 24 42 May 39 68 Nov 57 88
Dec 26 47 Jun 42 72 Dec 60 91
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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