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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.11.10 11:44l 103 Lines 3642 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Mon, 1 Nov 2010 10:44:02 GMT
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
October 2010 : 23.5 (twenty-three point five)
Maximum : 47 on 25 // Minimum : 0 on 6, 7, 8
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for October 2010 :
1.. 25 6.. 0 11.. 9 16.. 34 21.. 25 26.. 44 31.. 24
2.. 19 7.. 0 12.. 9 17.. 40 22.. 25 27.. 29
3.. 20 8.. 0 13.. 16 18.. 42 23.. 31 28.. 22
4.. 15 9.. 9 14.. 26 19.. 44 24.. 42 29.. 27
5.. 9 10.. 9 15.. 29 20.. 36 25.. 47 30.. 23
71 cooperating stations on November 1, 10 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for April 2010 : 14.0 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2010 May 16 17 2010 Nov 24 47 2011 May 39 71
Jun 16 21 Dec 26 52 Jun 42 73
Jul 16 27 2011 Jan 29 56 Jul 45 75
Aug 18 32 Feb 31 60 Aug 48 79
Sep 20 37 Mar 34 64 Sep 51 82
Oct 22 42 Apr 37 67 Oct 54 85
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
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