| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 16.10.10 23:02l 249 Lines 7769 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : GAKOK0NAG00Z
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<DB0RES<DK0WUE<IK6ZDE<IW0QNL<OK0PTU<OK0NAG
Sent: 101016/2202z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: UNKNOWN[147.231.106.1]
Date: 16 Oct 2010 22:01:46 +0000
X-asg-debug-id: 1287266301-069535920001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 16 Oct 2010 22:28:16.0781 (UTC) FILETIME=[6DA32BD0:01CB6D81]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.467
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.99:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-fingerprint-found: *Unknown-153920491 (bb522625ea95ea51bd31cffdc0fbb4f1-2897-htm)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1287266301
----boundary_18520_5f5b00e8-3a1c-4cfb-b055-77bcc2bba11f
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1112
(S18W28) produced an impulsive M2.9/1N flare at 16/1912Z. Associated
with this event were weak, discrete radio emissions ranging from
245MHz - 15,400MHz including a 140sfu Tenflare observed at 16/1916Z.
In addition, a Type II radio sweep, with an estimated shock velocity
of 929km/s was observed with this event. During the period, Region
1112 grew both in spot count and area and developed beta-gamma
magnetic characteristics. The remainder of the disk and limb
remained unchanged.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels, with a chance for additional M-class events
from Region 1112 all three days of the period (17 - 19 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for days one and two
(17 - 18 October). By day three (19 October), unsettled to active
levels, with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes, are
expected. The increase in activity is due to a geoeffective coronal
hole high speed stream coupled with possible glancing blow effects
from the 14 October CME.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 087
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/30
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/35
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_18520_5f5b00e8-3a1c-4cfb-b055-77bcc2bba11f
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_18520_5f5b00e8-3a1c-4cfb-b055-77bcc2bba11f--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
