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Date: Sat, 15 Dec 2007 22:02:14 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2007 Dec 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 978 (S10W52)
produced several low B-class flares. This region is now a magnetic
beta configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 978 could produce an isolated low level C-class
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: A recurrent coronal hole is
expected to become geoeffective 16-18 December. The geomagnetic
field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 16 December. Active
conditions are expected for 17 December with a chance for isolated
minor storm periods at mid latitudes and isolated major storming at
high latitudes. Unsettled levels with isolated active periods are
expected for 18 December.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 089
Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 085/085/080
90 Day Mean 15 Dec 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 008/010-020/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/20
Minor storm 10/20/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/35/25
Minor storm 15/25/20
Major-severe storm 05/10/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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