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OK0NAG > SOLAR 25.05.10 15:07l 116 Lines 4270 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Tue, 25 May 2010 12:56:36 GMT
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU145
UGEOA 30512 00525 1223/ 9930/
10252 22252 30252
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 25 May 2010 until 27 May
2010
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 May 2010 10CM FLUX: 074 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 May 2010 10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 May 2010 10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 044
COMMENT: A partial halo CME was detected by SOHO/LASCO C2 on May 24
starting at 14:06 UT. It was associated with the B1.1 flare peaking at
14:46 UT around N20W30 and accompanied by coronal dimmings and
post-eruption arcade observed by SOHO/EIT. The CME angular width was
around 245 degrees and its speed according to the LASCO data was around
350 km/s. The STEREO/SECCHI COR2 data show that the bulk of the CME was
deflected towards the south of the ecliptic. In addition, the CME source
region was situated to the west of the central meridian. We thus expect
the CME to have at most only a glancing blow at the Earth on May 28.
Active geomagnetic conditions can be expected. According to the LASCO
data, the CME associated with the eruption on May 23 was a full halo
(estimated speed in the LASCO field of view around 220 km/s). We expect
it to arrive late on May 26 - early on May 27 producing a geomagnetic
storm. Currently the Earth is inside the slow (300 km/s) solar wind flow
with average (4 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We expect
quiet geomagnetic conditions in the next 24 hours.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 013, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 00525 1223/ 24///
10026 20730 3003/ 4//// 80001 90180
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 00525 1223/ 25/06 25101
10074 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50170 60008 32714 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 24074 ///32 30006 31315 21308
USSPS 21305 24161 ///42 37012 31915 21307
USSPS 81202 24021 ///32 36009 31112 34307
USSPS 81202 25010 ///42 36008 32315 34306 39003 37414 01202
USSPS 31405 25063 01852 74017 32714 21308
UMAGF 30503 00525 0955/ 24060 1/005 21011 30011
UMAGF 31523 00525 ///// 2400/ 1/003 20111 31201
UCMEO 93001 00524 2100/ 00523 61730 80142 3161/ 315// 113// 20223
00523 61624 82012 41217 ///// 2212/ 99999 PLAIN UCMEO 93001 00524
2245/ 00524 61406 92142 1241/ 009// 113// 20397 00524 61124 81736
43115 ///// 2212/ 99999 PLAIN
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
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# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 #
# #
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