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OK0NAG > SOLAR 20.05.10 00:08l 215 Lines 6458 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 19 May 2010 22:04:13 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. The visible disk
remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind data
from ACE indicated the onset of a co-rotating interaction region at
about 19/0900Z in advance of a recurrent high speed stream. During
the period, solar wind speed increased from about 350 km/sec to
approximately 495 km/sec.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled with isolated active periods
on days one and two (20-21 May). Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on day 3 (May 22), as the high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 069
Predicted 20 May-22 May 070/070/072
90 Day Mean 19 May 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 012/018-010/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/25
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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