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OK0NAG > SOLAR 12.05.10 23:49l 229 Lines 7009 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 12 May 2010 21:45:45 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Two low level B-class flares were observed. The visible
disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind data from ACE indicate the continuation of
a high speed solar wind stream with a peak velocity of 500 km/s at
12/0740 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods for the next two days (13-14 May). This elevated activity is
due to a series of coronal hole high-speed streams moving into
geoeffective positions. On day three (15 May), quiet levels are
expected as the effects of these high speed solar wind streams
subside.
III. Event Probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 071
Predicted 13 May-15 May 071/070/070
90 Day Mean 12 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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