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OK0NAG > SOLAR 11.05.10 23:09l 238 Lines 7393 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 11 May 2010 22:04:47 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A solar
sector boundary crossing from negative (toward) to positive (away)
was evident in ACE SWEPAM signatures at about 11/0130Z. Shortly
afterwards, solar wind velocity gradually increased from about 350
km/s to near 400 km/s by 0600Z, while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field turned southward (-5 nT). These
signatures were consistent with a co-rotating interaction region in
advance of a coronal hole high speed wind stream. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods, all three days of the forecast period (12 - 14 May). This
activity is due to a series of coronal hole high speed wind streams
that are located in both solar hemispheres.
III. Event Probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 074
Predicted 12 May-14 May 074/073/073
90 Day Mean 11 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/25
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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