| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 10.05.10 00:05l 247 Lines 7620 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : 95KOK0NAG00W
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<OK0NAG
Sent: 100509/2201z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
Date: 9 May 2010 22:01:26 +0000
X-asg-debug-id: 1273442377-062515eb0001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 09 May 2010 22:24:26.0500 (UTC) FILETIME=[62491440:01CAEFC6]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.639
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.99:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1273442377
----boundary_182503_9f55bf74-e0d2-4fdd-ba67-94cc12a1b53a
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was
spotless. Region 1069 (N41W89) produced the only activity of the
period, a long duration, B1.3 x-ray event at 09/1541Z. A slow
moving CME (estimated velocity 225 km/s) was observed early in the
period lifting off the NW limb in the vicinity of Region 1069. The
CME did not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance of C-class activity on day one (10 May)
from departing Region 1069. On days two and three (11 - 12 May),
solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind velocities declined
steadily from 452 km/s to 375 km/s through the period. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet during day one (10 May) of the forecast period.
The field is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled, with a
slight chance for isolated active conditions, on days two and three
(11 - 12 May) due to recurrent co-rotating interaction
regions/coronal hole high speed wind streams.
III. Event Probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 075
Predicted 10 May-12 May 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 09 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 005/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/25/20
Minor storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/30/30
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_182503_9f55bf74-e0d2-4fdd-ba67-94cc12a1b53a
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_182503_9f55bf74-e0d2-4fdd-ba67-94cc12a1b53a--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
