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OK0NAG > SOLAR 20.04.10 00:02l 235 Lines 7316 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 19 Apr 2010 22:00:41 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Apr 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the last 24 hours. The visible disk remained spotless. A
CME was noted on SOHO and STEREO imagery on the southwest limb at
approximately 18/2300Z. The source of this activity is unknown,
however, it may be related to a prominence located just behind the
southwest limb. In addition, a second CME was observed at 19/1754Z
on the SOHO C2 image. This activity is likely associated with a
filament that lifted off the NW limb (approx. N40W85).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next three days (20-22 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the last 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for day one (20 April). Quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods are expected for days two and
three (21-22 April). Activity is expected due to possible effects
from a weak CME observed on 15 April and two coronal hole high speed
streams rotating into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Apr 075
Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 079/080/082
90 Day Mean 19 Apr 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 005/005-010/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/25
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/25/30
Minor storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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