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OK0NAG > SOLAR 19.04.10 00:03l 232 Lines 7237 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 18 Apr 2010 22:00:43 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Apr 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained
spotless. A very long duration B1.3 X-ray event was observed at
18/0218Z. The possible source region of this event was from an area
of surging on the east limb between N13 and N27 as observed in
GOES-14 SXI imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels. A slight chance for C-class activity exists as
the new area of interest on the NE limb rotates onto the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet at all latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet on days one and two (19 - 20 April). Activity
is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated
active periods, on day three (21 April) as two coronal hole wind
streams rotate into a geoeffective position. These coronal holes
are currently located, one each, in the NE and SE quadrants of the
disk and generally lie along a similar longitudinal line.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Apr 075
Predicted 19 Apr-21 Apr 078/079/080
90 Day Mean 18 Apr 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Apr 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/25
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/35
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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