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OK0NAG > SOLAR 15.04.10 23:07l 221 Lines 6768 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 15 Apr 2010 22:05:19 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the last 24 hours. The visible disk is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (16-18 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated active to minor
storm periods from 14/21-15/03Z due to recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for day one (16 April). Mostly quiet to
unsettled levels are expected for days two and three (17-18 April),
with possible isolated active periods at high latitudes on day three
(18 April). Increased activity levels are due to effects from the
CME observed on 13 April. .
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 075
Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 075/077/078
90 Day Mean 15 Apr 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 005/005-007/007-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/25/30
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/30/35
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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