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OK0NAG > SOLAR 14.04.10 00:05l 224 Lines 6868 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 13 Apr 2010 22:03:16 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Apr 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A single B-class flare
was observed at 0443Z from Region 1062 (S18W20). Region 1062 has
grown in size but is still a small bipolar sunspot group. A
filament eruption with an associated partial-halo CME (plane-of-sky
speed 540 km/s) was observed on the northwest limb at approximately
0908Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (14-16 April) with a slight chance for
an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the last 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for days one and two (14-15 April).
Activity is expected to be generally unsettled with a chance for an
active period on day three (16 April) due to the arrival of the
partial-halo CME observed today.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 075
Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 077/077/079
90 Day Mean 13 Apr 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 018/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/30
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/35
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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