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OK0NAG > SOLAR 03.04.10 16:51l 115 Lines 4156 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Sat, 3 Apr 2010 14:49:04 GMT
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU093
UGEOA 30512 00403 1217/ 9930/
10032 20032 30032
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 03 Apr 2010 until 05 Apr
2010
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Apr 2010 10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Apr 2010 10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Apr 2010 10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 005
COMMENT: A B7.4 flare peaking at 09:54 UT was detected today in the
Catania sunspot group 56 (NOAA AR 1059) located around S25W05. It was
accompanied by a post-eruption arcade, coronal dimmings, possibly an EIT
wave and a partial halo CME (angular width around 210 degrees). The CME
was first detected at 10:33 UT (by LASCO) and at 09:54 UT (by
SECCHI/COR2 on STEREO A). The CME was moving at a projected
plane-of-the-sky speed of around 250 km/s (according to the LASCO data).
Using some reasonable assumptions on the CME geometry, the true radial
CME speed can be estimated to be around 600 km/s. The arrival of the
corresponding ICME (possibly an interplanetary flux rope) at the Earth
is thus expected in the morning of April 6. The flux rope orientation as
inferred from the SOHO/EIT and SOHO/MDI data is ESW, although it may
change during propagation. STEREO A and B data indicate that the bulk of
the CME was propagating to the south of the ecliptic (according to the
COR2 data). If the flux rope will arrive at the Earth, we expect a
strong geomagnetic disturbance. Currently, the Earth is inside a slow
solar wind flow (460 km/s) with average (5 nT) interplanetary magnetic
field magnitude. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet in
the coming hours.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 018, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 00403 1217/ 02///
10035 20760 3014/ 4//// 80002 90350
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 00403 1217/ 02/06 03102
10054 2//// 3//// 475// 50230 60007 44714 00000
10056 2//// 3//// 473// 50120 60008 20621 02000
99999
USSPS 32404 02092 ///32 16020 45016 40803 17005 20523 21303
USSPS 21305 02163 ///22 20016 45517 40804 23004 20123 20803
USSPS 81202 03005 ///32 20004 30222 31305 18020 45915 40803
UMAGF 31523 00403 ///// 0200/ 1/014 23233 32343
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
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