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OK0NAG > SOLAR 02.04.10 15:45l 118 Lines 4544 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Fri, 2 Apr 2010 13:43:54 GMT
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU092
UGEOA 30512 00402 1252/ 9930/
10022 20022 30022
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 02 Apr 2010 until 04 Apr
2010
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Apr 2010 10CM FLUX: 078 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Apr 2010 10CM FLUX: 077 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Apr 2010 10CM FLUX: 076 / AP: 003
COMMENT: Two sunspot groups on the solar disc (Catania numbers 54 and
56, NOAA ARs 1057 and 1059 respectively) are unlikely to produce a
C-flare due to low X-ray background flux and its slow variability. An
interplanetary shock wave was detected by ACE and SOHO/CELIAS at 06:45
UT today. The solar source of this shock is probably a CME first
detected by LASCO C2 at 03:08 UT on March 30. The angular extent of the
CME was around 110 degrees. It was accelerating to reach the speed of
around 350 km/s in the LASCO C3 field of view. The CME originated from
the eruption in the Catania sunspot group 56 (NOAA AR 1059) at S15E40
that was not associated with any reported flare. However, coronal
dimmings and post-eruption loops were observed by SECCHI/EUVI onboard
STEREO B starting from around 03:00 UT. Due to the position of the
erupting active region away from solar central meridian and non-halo
appearance of the CME, we believe that the ICME itself will probably
miss the Earth. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude
reached 7 nT in the post-shock sheath. The IMF north-south component was
fluctuating, so the K index reached only 3 (as reported by IZMIRAN and
NOAA) The solar wind speed and the IMF magnitude are currently back at
average levels for the slow solar wind (460 km/s and 5 nT respectively).
We thus do not expect any further geomagnetic disturbance in the coming
hours. Catania sunspot group 56 (NOAA AR 1059) is currently situated
close to the solar central meridian, so any CME originating from this
group may arrive to the Earth with possible geomagnetic consequences.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 018, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 00402 1252/ 01///
10026 20790 3012/ 4//// 80002 90240
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 00402 1252/ 02/06 02102
10054 2//// 3//// 475// 50230 60007 44714 00000
10056 2//// 3//// 473// 50120 60008 20621 01000
99999
USSPS 32404 01072 ///32 16016 43715 21404 17006 22022 21303
USSPS 21305 01172 ///22 20022 44116 40803 23005 21323 20802
USSPS 81202 02021 ///32 20004 20822 21304 18024 44716 40804
USSPS 31405 02068 03552 54023 44714 5X807 56012 20621 3X908
UMAGF 31523 00402 ///// 0100/ 1/012 23322 33323
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
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