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OK1HH > SOLAR 02.03.08 14:00l 57 Lines 2483 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : 23IOK0PPL04U
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Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW2OHX<I0TVL<DK0WUE<DB0MRW<OK0PPL
Sent: 080302/0953z @:OK0PPL.#BOH.CZE.EU [Plzen JN69QR] obcm1.06
From: OK1HH @ OK0PPL.#BOH.CZE.EU (Franto)
To: SOLAR @ EU
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Mar 01 2203 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours and the solar disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Minor storm levels predominated from 29/2100-01/0300Z due to a high
speed stream with solar wind speeds in the 700-800 km/s range and an
interval of mostly negative Bz (values were mostly in the range from
-6 nT to +2 nT). Unsettled to active levels followed through
01/0900Z as Bz slowly shifted to a less negative orientation.
Activity was predominantly unsettled from 0900Z to the end of the
period. Solar wind speeds remain elevated (700-800 km/s) as of
forecast issue time but Bz has moderated with values ranging between
-3 to +3 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for the first day (02 March) due to persistent effects from
the high speed stream. Conditions should decline to quiet to
unsettled levels for the second day (03 March) as influence of the
high speed stream is expected to wane. Conditions should be
predominantly quiet by the third day (04 March).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 069
Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 01 Mar 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Feb 018/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 018/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 012/015-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 50/30/15
Minor storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/30/15
Minor storm 35/20/05
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
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