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OK0NAG > SOLAR 16.03.10 00:16l 233 Lines 7080 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 15 Mar 2010 22:03:47 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Mar 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1054 (N14W14) has showed slight decay but continues
to maintain its magnetic Beta-Gamma configuration. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (16-18 March).
C-flares are likely from Region 1054. There is a slight chance for
an isolated M-class event also from this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days
(16-18 March). The increase in activity is due to a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream on day one and day two, and a slow
moving partial halo CME observed on 13 February arriving late on day
three.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 086
Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 086/086/087
90 Day Mean 15 Mar 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 002/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 007/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/30
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/30
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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