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OK0NAG > SOLAR 16.02.10 23:05l 231 Lines 7192 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: 16 Feb 2010 22:03:03 +0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A single B-class flare was
observed on the west limb near old Region 1045 (N23, L=256). Regions
1046 (N22W49) and 1048 (N21E34) continued to gradually decay and
simplify. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for a C-class flare from Region 1048.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
levels occurred until 16/0300Z, then decreased to quiet to unsettled
levels. A further decrease to quiet levels occurred after 16/1200Z.
The active levels were due to periods of sustained southward IMF Bz
(minimum -11 nT at 15/2124Z) combined with enhanced IMF Bt (maximum
11 nT at 15/2102Z) associated with a CME passage. Solar wind
velocities varied from 254 - 366 km/s during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
levels during days 1 - 3 (17 - 19 February).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 087
Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 086/084/084
90 Day Mean 16 Feb 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 008/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/30/30
Minor storm 10/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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