|
OK0NAG > SOLAR 19.12.09 00:08l 241 Lines 7410 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : ICJOK0NAG00T
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<OK0NAG
Sent: 091218/2205z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
Date: 18 Dec 2009 22:04:40 +0000
X-asg-debug-id: 1261173865-060c12bc0001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 18 Dec 2009 22:24:21.0937 (UTC) FILETIME=[D8E85210:01CA8030]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.984
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.99:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1261173865
----boundary_55375_d4f29a58-f8e8-46c4-a224-a61492851a85
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Dec 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. One C-class event
occurred from Region 1035 (N30W45). It was an optically
uncorrelated, impulsive C7.6 observed at 18/1855Z. Numerous B-class
events were also observed throughout the period. Region 1035
continues to grow in area (310 millionths), longitudinal extent (12
degrees) and spot count (14 spots). However, during the past 24
hours, the large negative polarity penumbra and associated umbra
located near region center decayed resulting in a beta magnetic
configuration for the region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region
1035.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for day one (19 December) of the forecast
period. An increase to unsettled to active levels is expected on
day two (20 December). The increase in activity levels is due to
the expected arrival of the CME observed on 16 December. By day
three (21 December), the field will return to mostly quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 084
Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 085/085/083
90 Day Mean 18 Dec 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 005/005-015/015-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/45/15
Minor storm 05/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/50/20
Minor storm 10/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/10/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_55375_d4f29a58-f8e8-46c4-a224-a61492851a85
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_55375_d4f29a58-f8e8-46c4-a224-a61492851a85--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |