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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.11.09 15:08l 101 Lines 3651 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Monthly Ri Report
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
October 2009 : 4.6 (four point six)
Maximum : 19 on 25, 26, 27, 28 // Minimum : 0 on 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,
10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 31
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for October 2009 :
1.. 7 6.. 0 11.. 7 16.. 0 21.. 0 26.. 19 31..
0
2.. 0 7.. 0 12.. 0 17.. 0 22.. 0 27.. 19
3.. 0 8.. 0 13.. 0 18.. 0 23.. 10 28.. 19
4.. 0 9.. 0 14.. 0 19.. 0 24.. 16 29.. 16
5.. 0 10.. 0 15.. 0 20.. 0 25.. 19 30.. 11
63 cooperating stations on November 1, 14 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for April 2009 : 2.2 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2009 May 2 3 2009 Nov 6 14 2010 May 11 32
Jun 2 5 Dec 6 17 Jun 13 35
Jul 3 6 2010 Jan 7 19 Jul 14 39
Aug 4 7 Feb 8 22 Aug 15 43
Sep 4 9 Mar 9 26 Sep 16 47
Oct 5 11 Apr 10 29 Oct 18 51
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
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