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Date: Tue, 12 Feb 2008 22:01:54 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Feb 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels, due to continued
effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at
the ACE spacecraft reached a maximum of approximately 760 km/s at
11/2335Z. By the end of the summary period wind speed was close to
600 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately unsettled levels, with isolated
active periods possible on days one and two (13 - 14 February).
Conditions are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (15 February) as the high speed stream rotates out of a
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 072
Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 12 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 016/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 010/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/35
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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