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OK0NAG > SOLAR 18.08.09 23:03l 72 Lines 2826 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Tue, 18 Aug 2009 22:02:01 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to active levels on day one (19
August) in response to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream
(CH HSS). Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (20 August) as the CH HSS subsides. Quiet levels
are expected on day three (21 August).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 067
Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 18 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 015/012-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/30/15
Minor storm 20/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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