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Date: Sun, 16 Aug 2009 22:02:03 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Aug 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected
and the visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels throughout the summary
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (17 August). An increase to
quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 2 (18 August) as a
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) begins to disturb
the field. A further increase to unsettled to active levels (with a
slight chance for minor storm levels) is expected on day 3 (19
August) as the CH HSS persists.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 069
Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 16 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 005/005-007/007-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/30
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/40
Minor storm 01/01/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
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your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
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