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OK0NAG > SOLAR    01.08.09 11:05l 102 Lines 3725 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Monthly Ri Report
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:Issued: 2009 Aug 01 0902 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/ri
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER                 #

# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)                                        #

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#


Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
July 2009 : 3.5 (three point five)

Maximum : 16 on 4, 5, 6 // Minimum : 0 on 1, 2, 3, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 
16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 31

Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for July 2009 : 

      1..  0    6.. 16   11..  0   16..  0   21..  0   26..  0   31..  
0
      2..  0    7.. 13   12..  0   17..  0   22..  0   27..  0
      3..  0    8.. 13   13..  0   18..  0   23..  8   28..  0
      4.. 16    9.. 11   14..  0   19..  0   24..  0   29..  0
      5.. 16   10..  9   15..  0   20..  0   25..  0   30..  8

63 cooperating stations on August 1, 08 UT

Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for January 2009 :   1.8 (+-5%)

            SM    CM                 SM    CM                 SM    CM 
    

2009 Feb     2     2     2009 Aug    13     8     2010 Feb    20    19

     Mar     2     3          Sep    14     9          Mar    22    21

     Apr     2     4          Oct    15    11          Apr    23    24

     May    10     5          Nov    17    12          May    25    26

     Jun    11     6          Dec    18    15          Jun    26    28

     Jul    12     7     2010 Jan    19    17          Jul    28    32


SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term

Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103

 
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#

# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #

# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #

# Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224                                           #

# Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491                                           #

#                                                                    #

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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#






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