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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Sun, 10 Feb 2008 22:01:58 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
increase in activity is attributable to the arrival of a high speed
stream. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 450 km/s to
approximately 650 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm
periods at high latitudes on day 1 (11 February) due to a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to be at quiet
to unsettled levels on days 2 and 3 (12-13 February) as the effects
of the coronal hole high-speed stream wane.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 073
Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 10 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 015/015-010/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/25
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 45/30/40
Minor storm 15/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
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to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
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