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Date: Mon, 20 Jul 2009 22:02:32 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jul 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with isolated
unsettled conditions. Solar wind data observed at ACE was consistent
with a co-rotating interaction region.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active levels, on
day one (21 July) as an anticipated coronal hole high-speed stream
(CH HSS) becomes geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on day two (22 July) as the CH HSS begins to wane.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day three (23
July).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 068
Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 20 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 015/018-006/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/15/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
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