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Date: Wed, 8 Jul 2009 22:02:17 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jul 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1024 (S25W52)
produced four B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The region
underwent minor changes and is currently an E type sunspot group
with a simple beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one (9 July) due to
possible coronal hole effects. Activity is expected to return to
quiet levels on day two (10 July). Activity is expected to be quiet
to unsettled on day three (11 July), also due to possible coronal
hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 071
Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 08 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 007/008-005/007-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/10
Minor storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
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