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OK0NAG > SOLAR 18.02.09 23:06l 72 Lines 2841 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Wed, 18 Feb 2009 22:02:29 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the period. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two of the forecast
period (19 - 20 February). By day three (21 February),
predominately quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast as a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into
a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 070
Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 18 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 005/005-005/008-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/25
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/30
Minor storm 01/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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