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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Tue, 11 Dec 2007 22:02:28 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2007 Dec 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted
of a few, low level B-class flares. Region 978 (S07E01) is the only
sunspot region on the disk and is a 240 millionths Eai beta-gamma
group. The group has been relatively stable during the past 24
hours. There appears to be a new region rotating around east limb
near N28.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class event
sometime during the next three days (12-14 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled although there was an
active period from 10/2100Z-11/0000Z. Solar wind observations from
ACE show the onset of a co-rotating interaction region late
yesterday, followed by the onset of a high speed stream around
11/0000Z. Peak solar wind speeds were around 650 km/s. Nonetheless
the solar wind magnetic field has been relatively weak since
11/0130Z. The solar wind speed is currently declining slowly with
values around 550 km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for an isolated
active period for 12 December. Conditions should be predominantly
quiet for 13-14 December.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 093
Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 11 Dec 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/15
Minor storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/15/15
Minor storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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