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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Mon, 22 Dec 2008 22:01:41 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Dec 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained
spotless. Please note: the observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux for 21
December was 068.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. At about 22/1600Z, ACE
measured increases in temperature, density and wind velocity, all
indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. During this period, solar
wind speed increased to near 400 km/s while the Bz component of the
IMF varied north and south about +/- 10 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecasted to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on
23 December. On 24 - 25 December, effects from the coronal hole are
expected to wane, and as a result, the geomagnetic field will be
mostly quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 068
Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 22 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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