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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Wed, 12 Nov 2008 22:23:06 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Nov 12 2220 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1008 (N33W24)
produced today's only event, a B1 flare at 0009Z. The group appears
to be quiet and stable and apparently is no longer growing.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days. However, there continues to be just a
slight chance for an isolated C-class event from 1008.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the first and second days of the forecast
period (13-14 November). A small increase to quiet to unsettled is
expected on the third day (15 November) in response to slightly
elevated solar wind velocity from a favorably positioned weak
coronal hole. The presence of the elevated solar wind speed has also
been indicated by observations at the STEREO-B spacecraft.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 071
Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 12 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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